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Post by Renée on May 2, 2015 19:38:04 GMT -5
And lissa, to be honest, I would probably send in jake, lizzy and alleen into a mission. Ithink both sspies are in that group.
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Post by Lissa on May 2, 2015 20:26:53 GMT -5
Oh, sending boo spies? I see why that might be good yeah. I hadn't thought of that.
If that's the idea perhaps I dhpuldnt send myself. I figured that I should be because if I didnt there was no way it would be all town but if that's not what we're going for hmm.
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Post by Lissa on May 2, 2015 20:28:16 GMT -5
Well no actually. If Im in there with two spies I guess it narrows it down further actually, two spies in three instead of in four. That just works fromY perspective tho. Hmm
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Post by Lissa on May 2, 2015 20:40:45 GMT -5
Okay, about Lissa's scum partner, I am not sure. Renee isn't pointing out to be very scum-ish in my opinion and I am getting slight town vibes from her but I am not sure if Lissa will try to bus Lizzy if both of them are mafia. The thing is though that you only need one mafia person to screw-up the mission and it could be generally risky to sent out both mafia people. From a probability standpoint, we basically have a 66% at sending the right people in. We have to extra sure about what people are sent as one scum person in the mission could screw things up. Huh? Where does 66% come from? That makes No sense and sounds super high if I have any idea at all what you are talking about. |
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Post by Lissa on May 2, 2015 20:48:53 GMT -5
I'm pretty sure Skelda is resistance and am nearly as sure Renee is. So I guess if I'm aiming to hit both spies I should send me/lizzy/Alleen/Jake? No way that is passing. But I guess that's the point? What does it tell us? I guess if it gets doupbe failed it confirms beyond all doubt that Renee and Skelda are resistance. I guess that leads to pretty much confirmibf Nadine is scum but I'm already fairly sure of that anyway. So like I'm not sure how much this tells us but I dunno how to hit all the resistance. I know id pick me/Skelda/Renee for 3 resistance but whether the last one is Jake or Alleen is up inthe air for me at this point.
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Post by turner on May 2, 2015 20:49:22 GMT -5
I guess a deadline couldn't hurt.  Just so there IS one. I'll set it for my midnight, which is a little more than 5 hours from now. |
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Post by jake on May 2, 2015 20:59:27 GMT -5
Okay, about Lissa's scum partner, I am not sure. Renee isn't pointing out to be very scum-ish in my opinion and I am getting slight town vibes from her but I am not sure if Lissa will try to bus Lizzy if both of them are mafia. The thing is though that you only need one mafia person to screw-up the mission and it could be generally risky to sent out both mafia people. From a probability standpoint, we basically have a 66% at sending the right people in. We have to extra sure about what people are sent as one scum person in the mission could screw things up. Huh? Where does 66% come from? That makes No sense and sounds super high if I have any idea at all what you are talking about. 66% is an estimate on 4/6. There are six players in the game and there are two mafia members meaning that there is four people we need to send just to guarantee a pass. |
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Post by Lissa on May 2, 2015 21:09:56 GMT -5
Well, that's the chance of picking one Resistance member at random out of all of us. It's quite a bit lower to pick all four Resistance.
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Post by jake on May 2, 2015 21:28:55 GMT -5
Well, the chances of this actually succeeding is actually quite low from a realistic standpoint. There is a difference between realistic standpoints and probability standpoints. For example, there could of been a 50% chance at me rewatching a movie that I ended hating from a probability standpoint (the other 50% is where I ended not rewatching the movie) but from a realistic standpoint, there's would of been a very low chance at me rewatching that movie.
I probably made your brain hurt with that sentence so anyway, back to game talk-
If we want this to succeed, then we need to actually think carefully. Since though people are talking about how they should send the people who they find to be the most suspicious (not suspencious; if you understand this reference then I will one million awesome points) in hopes to see a possible failure, it may not be a problem but I am concern that something weird shall happen like the mafia decided to give the mission a pass just to confuse people. I am probably thinking too much though.
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Post by Lissa on May 2, 2015 21:37:41 GMT -5
Yes. It is fairly low from a realistic standpoint. But still more likely than from a probability standpoint, I think, unless I am terribly off, because reads don't figure in to random chance.
And no, that sentence did not make my brain hurt.
Anyway. Yeah. I see the point behind purposefully sending scummy people. And if they pass it in the hopes of not getting caught out, well that's alright, nothing is really confirmed but at least we get a difficult mission passed. I don't think it's advantageous for them to do that at this point though. I think the question is, are we fairly sure we can get the last two passed if we send this one with a bunch of scummy people and it gets failed? We don't have a huge amount of room to test things at this point, and fmpov a me/nadine/you/alleen mission getting two fails would just confirm what I already pretty strongly believe.
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Post by jake on May 2, 2015 21:47:37 GMT -5
Yeah the thing is that we kinda have a Me/Alleen/Lissa/Lizzy round last round without actually having Lizzy. I've kinda see that having us go again with Lizzy being included may be a wasted turn. Plus, Lizzy didn't go for the last round and Skelda/Renee haven't gone at all (even though we kinda trust them at this point).
I don't know what to do at this point to be honest. I will generally surprised thought 5 people ended up accepting and one person didn't though.
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Post by Nadine on May 2, 2015 23:54:59 GMT -5
Morning!
Sending scummy people is a good idea, but then we HAVE to get the mission after it passed. I'm scared we won't get enough info out of this. Even if both scum fail it, we'll still be guessing. We'll be guessing more accurately though, which helps.
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Post by alleen on May 3, 2015 0:09:46 GMT -5
Can we just get the mission out... ? Please!
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Post by turner on May 3, 2015 0:39:22 GMT -5
Deadline in one hour
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Post by alleen on May 3, 2015 0:45:25 GMT -5
What do T means?  |
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Just so there IS one.
