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Post by Skelda on Dec 29, 2018 23:05:23 GMT -5
Maybe the jailkeeper claims and say who they'd target N2 and then we no whack..? I think the Jailkeeper will be killed if they claim and then we No whack. If the Jailkeeper claims, we must whack. |
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Post by Skelda on Dec 29, 2018 23:06:42 GMT -5
who do you want to whack? Rosey is just as bad as Skelda. Skelda would no kill just to throw us o''. Rosey is clever enough, too. Or perhaps the killer actually did make a movie but was thwarted either by being jailkept or trying to kill the jailkeepie. I'm Town Lala. I honestly think you are too, but I could be wrong. No Killing makes the most sense coming from Rosey. She has a reputation for it. I don't think I would have risked killing either. |
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Post by Zinnia on Dec 29, 2018 23:21:42 GMT -5
If the Jailkeeper is killed, we know the person they targeted N2 is not the murderer. That leaves the target to choose between the remaining two. Which is... easier than choosing between three.
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Post by Zinnia on Dec 29, 2018 23:22:59 GMT -5
I'd have killed. And I would have killed Skelda! So he doesn't try to catch me in a quick hammer, maybe.
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Post by Skelda on Dec 30, 2018 1:19:47 GMT -5
We already have that though. Even if we miswhack right now, the Jailkeeper still has a 50% chance of correctly jailing tonight. whacking right now gives us better odds than volunteering the Jailkeeper to be killed at Night for no reason
If the Jailkeeper claims, we have a 1/3 chance of immediately winning if we whack correctly. And then the Jailkeeper has a 1/2 chance of picking the correct person at Night. If we whack someone who isn't the Jailkeeper today and the Jailkeeper hasn't claimed, that chance is even higher since the Mafia might be jailed or they might attempt to kill the person being jailed. Granted we wouldn't necessarily be able to tell which one of those had happened, so no guarantee we'd whack correctly. Two whackes > one. If a Jailkeeper claims, we should whack.
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Post by Skelda on Dec 30, 2018 1:20:50 GMT -5
Also if it suddenly becomes Night, every do the same thing you said you were going to do yesterday just so we know.
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Post by Skelda on Dec 30, 2018 1:24:04 GMT -5
The worst case scenario for Town is the Jailkeeper getting killed at Night. Mafia can't do better than that 50% chance. Town can give themselves better odds
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Post by Skelda on Dec 30, 2018 1:25:54 GMT -5
I think I want to whack Rosey. Rosey can confirm that she isn't the Jailkeeper. Then if we're wrong the actual Jailkeeper can save or block someone.
Though Zinnia saying what she would do if she were Mafia rubs me the wrong way too. Maybe it is her.
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Post by Skelda on Dec 30, 2018 1:28:17 GMT -5
So basically the Mafia need to correctly hit the Jailkeeper tonight if we whack today. As long as they don't do that, we will get another whack tomorrow. And even if they do, there's a 50% chance the Jailkeeper will block them.
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Post by Skelda on Dec 30, 2018 1:38:31 GMT -5
Anyway I'm going to bed. I would prefer if the Day didn't end any time soon
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Post by Zinnia on Dec 30, 2018 1:42:49 GMT -5
It's not me Skeldar!
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Post by rosey1579 on Dec 30, 2018 2:37:28 GMT -5
I think Rosey would have No Killed. Should the person who is the Jailkeeper claim? Is there a harm? I think anyone who thought of it probably would have. In hindsight it is the better play for the killer. If Jailkeeper claims they’ll probably be the target of the killer which can reduce the chances of a save on the other townie. |
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Post by rosey1579 on Dec 30, 2018 2:50:10 GMT -5
I can see it being you, actually. Pardon my boldness but this ain’t much of a defense. Not that it’s specifically meant to be, I guess, but your posts have been somewhat brief and semi-committal. |
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Post by Zinnia on Dec 30, 2018 3:05:45 GMT -5
Fair enough. I can't really come up with a defense that's not self-meta which is hardly helpful (I'd be more committed if I were Mafia, I'd... well, understand my goal better, but as Town I'm honestly lost)
Maybe I'm not trying hard enough but I don't have a very strong opinion between the three of you. Even if I were the Jailkeeper, the possibility someone were to no-kill makes it harder when apparently everyone but me thought about it.
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Post by rosey1579 on Dec 30, 2018 3:32:23 GMT -5
Fair enough. I can't really come up with a defense that's not self-meta which is hardly helpful (I'd be more committed if I were Mafia, I'd... well, understand my goal better, but as Town I'm honestly lost) Maybe I'm not trying hard enough but I don't have a very strong opinion between the three of you. Even if I were the Jailkeeper, the possibility someone were to no-kill makes it harder when apparently everyone but me thought about it. I didn’t think about it at the time, either. I thought no whacking would give us a bit more information however it ended up telling us next to nothing. No strong opinion isn’t that surprising, really. Skelda has been analyzing the game, Lala has been telling people not to whack her, you have been lost alone and afraid. There’s not much there that‘s indicative of scum, but yours seems the most typical. |
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