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Post by Skelda on Sept 29, 2018 17:05:23 GMT -5
Also Legend your math was bad! I did not care that it was accurate, it isn't good math
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Post by Zinnia on Sept 29, 2018 17:09:17 GMT -5
Yes, Skelda. You've said that many times, it's unnecessary.
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Post by Skelda on Sept 29, 2018 17:12:03 GMT -5
Well in Afterlife someone said that I was just annoyed that he was correct. I'm just clearing the air!
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Post by rosey1579 on Sept 29, 2018 17:19:22 GMT -5
Chart. Imperfect but oh well.  Yes, when first role is given then second can be mostly anything. Although this is hieroglyphics. And semantics. But it’s fun to have a chart and I wasn’t going to not show it off. |
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Post by Kat on Sept 29, 2018 17:24:01 GMT -5
I have no idea what any of that means but good job rosey posey.
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Post by Zinnia on Sept 29, 2018 17:24:11 GMT -5
Well in Afterlife someone said that I was just annoyed that he was correct. I'm just clearing the air! That was Bella, who runs the Discord server... and is in our scum chat... I think she saw. You're good. |
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Post by bellagorilla on Sept 29, 2018 17:27:11 GMT -5
Yes, because it seemed like you were annoyed.
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Post by Zinnia on Sept 29, 2018 17:30:37 GMT -5
Bella went up a rank!  |
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Post by bellagorilla on Sept 29, 2018 17:43:53 GMT -5
I did! I was purposely posting in the game thread to up my posting count.
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Post by Lala on Sept 29, 2018 17:44:14 GMT -5
I totally get where Legend is coming from on that.
I think.
That's like a player might have the same percentage of someone else getting mafia in a certain game, however ... if you spread that over 5 games, the liklihood that one particular got mafia all 5 of those games is less than if someone got all town or a mixture of the two.
It's not just heads or tails, it's not just black or red.
I really, truly believe that.
I am not saying that Jill got mafia last game, so I think she has less of a chance of getting mafia this game as Suzy. That's not what I'm saying.
I'm saying the chance that Jill is going to get mafia 5 games in a row is quite less than the chance she is going to get all town or a mixture of the both.
I don't know if that's what Legend is saying or not. But that's what I'm saying. I'm not comparing a single game to another.
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Post by Skelda on Sept 29, 2018 18:12:25 GMT -5
The Gambler's fallacy has infected you too Lala!!! lol
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Post by Lala on Sept 29, 2018 18:27:34 GMT -5
The Gambler's fallacy has infected you too Lala!!! lol Could you please do a percentage of it? You aren't good at math, I'm not either. Maybe someone who does. Gambler's fallacy has more to do with odds/evens, wins/loss, red/black than say an 11 player game with 3 scum and 8 town. There's a smaller chance of getting scum than getting town...therefore, the odds that you would roll scum 10 times a row are lower than the odds you would roll town 10 times in a roll or a mixture of the two. Is that not correct? I know there's not an even chance of getting scum or getting town. In most games at least. |
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Post by Lala on Sept 29, 2018 18:32:42 GMT -5
There has to be a formula or a quick, mathematical way to do it.
Maybe we could take a 12 person game with 3 scum and 9 town -- so you have 1 black (scum) and 3 red (town). Chances are you are going to roll red more than black. Chances are greater you would roll 10 red or a combination of red/black than you would roll 10 black.
If you have an even chance please tell me how that is possible. I just don't see it.
Yes -- each individual game, every individual has the same chance of landing on black as the other players -- but over a ten period game it is unlikely that 1 player would roll black for each of the ten games.
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Post by choco on Sept 29, 2018 18:43:35 GMT -5
I came on forums to escape from maths, only to find more people talking about probabilities xD
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Post by Lala on Sept 29, 2018 18:57:45 GMT -5
A gambler who is losing keeps betting because he thinks his luck will turn around. He's only looking at wins vs. losses. 2 sides of a coin. He isn't looking at 2 of a kind, 3 of a kind, 4 of a kind, full house, flush, etc. etc. He is only interested in wins and losses. Two things.
Gambler's Fallacy would certainly be considered if Skelda said, "I've lost my last 9 games. I'm going to keep playing because my luck is bound to turn around and I'll win the next one."
That's not what we are talking about.
We are talking about how unlikely it is for someone to roll scum 10 times in a row when only 25 percent of the roles offered are scum.
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