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Post by HungryPony27 on Sept 28, 2018 16:45:00 GMT -5
90 town 20 mafia 18 Werewolf 9 alien 3 survivor 2 whacker 4 SK 2 Cult 1 Wildcard 146 Roles That translates to (for the first role and second roll) 61% Town 14% Mafia 12% Werewolf 6% Alien 2% Survivor 1.34% whacker 3% SK 1.34% Cult 0.66% Wildcard I Could do the math of how great the chance is to hit town twice, ETC ETC. But you can about HALF it for the same event to happen twice sucessfully so that's what I'll do 2xtown: 30 2xmaf: 7 2xww 6 2xalien 3 2x survivor 1 2x whacker <1 2x SK 1.5 2x cult <1 2x WC <1 (To get the same role twice is about 0.33 chance… I like those odds) And the COMBOS are somewhere between the percentages chance of 2x of both… So for example: You have about a 20% chance to get town maf. (The exact math is pointless because no one reads this besides me) CONCLUSION: TOWN IS THE MOST COMMON AND 2X TOWN IS STILL THE MOST COMMON. A TOWN DISCARD DOES NOT MEAN ANYTHING. AND IF ANYTHING, A SCUM DISCARD IS BETTER THAN A TOWN DISCARD. Why is a scum discard better than a Town discard? I think it depends on the person Statistically the odds of getting town with scum are HUGE in comparison to double scum. I'm not talking people, I'm talking math. Obviously,if I dump town like I have, I probably picked scum. I don't even disagree with Roseys vote. I'm likely scum according to stats and my past. |
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Post by HungryPony27 on Sept 28, 2018 16:45:54 GMT -5
Why is a scum discard better than a Town discard? I think it depends on the person Statistically the odds of getting town with scum are HUGE in comparison to double scum. I'm not talking people, I'm talking math. Obviously,if I dump town like I have, I probably picked scum. I don't even disagree with Roseys vote. I'm likely scum according to stats and my past. Using myself as an example here. I'm not claiming scum. Never again. |
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Post by Skelda on Sept 28, 2018 16:46:30 GMT -5
Zinnia: black goo- Hilarious that you were offered this too, but pretty null. I think you would have chosen basically any role over this.
Katie: FBI agent- Not super strong Town role but at least not actively bad for its own faction.
Legend: vigilante- I love being a vig but it's very much a matter of personal taste. Means nothing.
Rosey: werewolf cop- A pretty decent role tbh? I think it's the best role discarded so I slightly suspect Rosey just based on that, but at the same time she probably would choose it over most scum roles so maybe I don't? I don't know what I think lol, does Rosey like being scum?
Charlie: mafia fruit vendor- Weak Mafia role, I think given two scum roles this would be a good one to discard. Does Charlie like being scum?
Skelda: black goo- I am Town, but honestly I would have chosen most things over Black Goo, it's a uniquely bad role.
Alleen: survivor- Alleen likes being a Jester which kind of reminds me of a Survivor? She generally prefers Town, but I also remember that she chose scum the last time we played this setup and tricked everyone. Plus some people hate Survivor, so I'm not sure what she would have done given the choice between Survivor and scum.
I think Charlie is the most suspicious to me based on discards? But there's lots of mediocre or bad Town discards and really any of them could be scum.
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Post by HungryPony27 on Sept 28, 2018 16:48:08 GMT -5
Zinnia: black goo- Hilarious that you were offered this too, but pretty null. I think you would have chosen basically any role over this. Katie: FBI agent- Not super strong Town role but at least not actively bad for its own faction. Legend: vigilante- I love being a vig but it's very much a matter of personal taste. Means nothing. Rosey: werewolf cop- A pretty decent role tbh? I think it's the best role discarded so I slightly suspect Rosey just based on that, but at the same time she probably would choose it over most scum roles so maybe I don't? I don't know what I think lol, does Rosey like being scum? Charlie: mafia fruit vendor- Weak Mafia role, I think given two scum roles this would be a good one to discard. Does Charlie like being scum? Skelda: black goo- I am Town, but honestly I would have chosen most things over Black Goo, it's a uniquely bad role. Alleen: survivor- Alleen likes being a Jester which kind of reminds me of a Survivor? She generally prefers Town, but I also remember that she chose scum the last time we played this setup and tricked everyone. Plus some people hate Survivor, so I'm not sure what she would have done given the choice between Survivor and scum. I think Charlie is the most suspicious to me based on discards? But there's lots of mediocre or bad Town discards and really any of them could be scum. We should have done this ages ago. I'll do mine in the morrow. |
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Post by HungryPony27 on Sept 28, 2018 16:48:42 GMT -5
Zinnia: black goo- Hilarious that you were offered this too, but pretty null. I think you would have chosen basically any role over this. Katie: FBI agent- Not super strong Town role but at least not actively bad for its own faction. Legend: vigilante- I love being a vig but it's very much a matter of personal taste. Means nothing. Rosey: werewolf cop- A pretty decent role tbh? I think it's the best role discarded so I slightly suspect Rosey just based on that, but at the same time she probably would choose it over most scum roles so maybe I don't? I don't know what I think lol, does Rosey like being scum? Charlie: mafia fruit vendor- Weak Mafia role, I think given two scum roles this would be a good one to discard. Does Charlie like being scum? Skelda: black goo- I am Town, but honestly I would have chosen most things over Black Goo, it's a uniquely bad role. Alleen: survivor- Alleen likes being a Jester which kind of reminds me of a Survivor? She generally prefers Town, but I also remember that she chose scum the last time we played this setup and tricked everyone. Plus some people hate Survivor, so I'm not sure what she would have done given the choice between Survivor and scum. I think Charlie is the most suspicious to me based on discards? But there's lots of mediocre or bad Town discards and really any of them could be scum. We should have done this ages ago. I'll do mine in the morrow. Just because I'm tired and i do silly thinking when I'm tired. |
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Post by Skelda on Sept 28, 2018 16:49:32 GMT -5
Why is a scum discard better than a Town discard? I think it depends on the person Statistically the odds of getting town with scum are HUGE in comparison to double scum. I'm not talking people, I'm talking math. Obviously,if I dump town like I have, I probably picked scum. I don't even disagree with Roseys vote. I'm likely scum according to stats and my past. Statistically unlikely things happen all the time, especially with such a small sample size. There shouldn't have been two Black Goo offered. But yeah, it's common sense that it's more likely to role two Town because there are more Town than scum as there should be. It's more likely for any of us to be scum than Town in every game but we still have to whack someone. |
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Post by choco on Sept 28, 2018 16:50:36 GMT -5
A doctor should always check their patients' full medical history including the medications they have been taking (drug interactions/dose adjustments etc.) and note down any conditions (in this case, epilepsy) they may have had previously before performing the operation or supplying the anaesthesia. Doctors and other related health care professionals are supposed to put patient safety first by take everything into account in order to guarantee that each patient is being treated appropriately with fully optimised regimen. However, doctors are humans and humans are prone to make all sorts of mistakes, especially under stressed conditions. Both doctors should be criticised for not performing the history check thoroughly, A should definitely learn from the near-miss and try to prevent negligence from happening knowing how much of an impact it can have on a patient's life.
Over the years a 'no-blame' conscience has been developed within the healthcare environment that aims at encouraging people to actually learn from what they had done wrong before (without pointing fingers at/blaming/criticising/belittling anyone for doing things horribly) rather than walking away from their past mistakes. People work together as healthcare professionals and fully acknowledge that it is acceptable for anyone to make mistakes and that is exactly why co-operation among all staffs/members is essential for improving patient-centred care. |
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Post by bellagorilla on Sept 28, 2018 16:52:06 GMT -5
Statistically the odds of getting town with scum are HUGE in comparison to double scum. I'm not talking people, I'm talking math. Obviously,if I dump town like I have, I probably picked scum. I don't even disagree with Rosey's vote. I'm likely scum according to stats and my past. Statistically unlikely things happen all the time, especially with such a small sample size. There shouldn't have been two Black Goo offered.
But yeah, it's common sense that it's more likely to role two Town because there are more Town than scum as there should be. It's more likely for any of us to be scum than Town in every game but we still have to whack someone. Yes, I messed up. More along, please. Nothing to see here. |
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Post by Skelda on Sept 28, 2018 16:52:26 GMT -5
I still think your logic that someone discarding a Town card affects their other card mathetmatically in any way is wrong though Legend. The other card is 60% Town whether the discard is Town or scum, the odds of particular combinations don't matter.
At least I think that's how math works?
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Post by Skelda on Sept 28, 2018 16:53:25 GMT -5
Statistically unlikely things happen all the time, especially with such a small sample size. There shouldn't have been two Black Goo offered.
But yeah, it's common sense that it's more likely to role two Town because there are more Town than scum as there should be. It's more likely for any of us to be scum than Town in every game but we still have to whack someone. Yes, I messed up. More along, please. Nothing to see here. I meant in terms of the statistics, not in terms of you rolling the roles incorrectly, though you probably did that too lol |
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Post by HungryPony27 on Sept 28, 2018 16:55:12 GMT -5
Statistically the odds of getting town with scum are HUGE in comparison to double scum. I'm not talking people, I'm talking math. Obviously,if I dump town like I have, I probably picked scum. I don't even disagree with Roseys vote. I'm likely scum according to stats and my past. Statistically unlikely things happen all the time, especially with such a small sample size. There shouldn't have been two Black Goo offered. But yeah, it's common sense that it's more likely to role two Town because there are more Town than scum as there should be. It's more likely for any of us to be scum than Town in every game but we still have to whack someone. Course. This is why I like looking at the stats. And I think we should whack someone who ditched a town role. Its 30% town town. That means 70% town not town. Therefore we have a 70% chance to hit scum if we whack a town dumper. That makes... Goo Goo Vigilante FBI The most likely to have scum. I don't like whacking the goos for obvious reasons. I think that this is a toss up between me and Katie if I'm honest. I know I'm town... VOTE KATIE. that's my best reasoning now I'm tired. |
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Post by Skelda on Sept 28, 2018 16:55:25 GMT -5
It's like the person who's like "Oh I was scum the last two games, I'm unlikely to be scum again."
Each role is rolled independently of the other role being offered alongside it
But we're getting sidetracked
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Post by Skelda on Sept 28, 2018 16:55:53 GMT -5
Statistically unlikely things happen all the time, especially with such a small sample size. There shouldn't have been two Black Goo offered. But yeah, it's common sense that it's more likely to role two Town because there are more Town than scum as there should be. It's more likely for any of us to be scum than Town in every game but we still have to whack someone. Course. This is why I like looking at the stats. And I think we should whack someone who ditched a town role. Its 30% town town. That means 70% town not town. Therefore we have a 70% chance to hit scum if we whack a town dumper. That makes... Goo Goo Vigilante FBI The most likely to have scum. I don't like whacking the goos for obvious reasons. I think that this is a toss up between me and Katie if I'm honest. I know I'm town... VOTE KATIE. that's my best reasoning now I'm tired. This is bad math. |
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Post by Skelda on Sept 28, 2018 16:57:32 GMT -5
I'm not a math person but I don't think that's how math works Legend.
Maybe I'm wrong but I don't think so
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Post by HungryPony27 on Sept 28, 2018 16:58:34 GMT -5
I still think your logic that someone discarding a Town card affects their other card mathetmatically in any way is wrong though Legend. The other card is 60% Town whether the discard is Town or scum, the odds of particular combinations don't matter. At least I think that's how math works? I'm using repeated chance to calculate the doubles. You have about a 30% chance to hit 2 shots of 60% consequently. That means that since it's 30% chance to get this best result, EVERYTHING ELSE (70%) makes the town discard bad. |
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